Our Services

Used by leading Irish & International Banks and Credit Unions

Empirical Credit Risk Management (ECM)

Internationally recognised solution for all retail lenders, empirically based for measuring and tracking credit risk...

Learn More

Effective Yield Calculator

An IFRS compliant solution which distributes mortgage origination costs in line with income for more accurate profitability measurement

Learn More

ECM Consulting Services

A wide range of ECM Consulting Services including Trend analyses, Account-level Loss Forecasts, Full Portfolio Evaluations for M & A ...

Learn More

Read Our White Paper

Manage & mitigate risk to optimise profitability with Empirical Credit Risk Management Analytics. Article Credit Expo’s ECM Analytics

Learn More


Who We Are




CreditExpo is a consulting and software development company specialising in the measurement and management of retail credit risk, both for operational purposes and for compliance with the new IASB and FASB reporting rules. The methodology and software developed by CreditExpo is Empirical Credit Management (ECM Analytics)

Origin of ECM Analytics

As CEO designate of the retail lender Chartered Trust Ireland, Patrick Shallow, FIB PhD identified the ambiguous nature of the former Basel l and Basel ll regulatory rules and undertook extensive regression research to develop an empirically verifiable alternative. The initial software product was then developed, installed and tested in three leading Irish banks, being approved by their auditors and the regulator. The product was further extended and installed in the credit unions, successfully replacing the former ‘Resolution 49’ fixed rate matrix that had critically understated their credit risk.

The Structure of ECM Analytics

ECM Analytics is a dynamic, patented, expert system designed to measure credit risk across the full range of retail lending instruments. Its construction has involved several disciplines within Credit Expo including Banking, Maths and Stats, Actuarial Science, Economics and Software Development. Results have been extensively back tested and proven in several environments over recent years.

ECM Analytics - An End to End Solution.

As a dynamic and mathematically precise system, ECM Analytics, delivers accuracy across New Business Acceptance and Pricing, Collections Prioritisation, Performance Management, Compliance Reporting and Portfolio Evaluation.

Corporate Resources

  • Marketing Strategist
  • Actuary
  • Statistician
  • Economist
  • Java developer

Dr. Patrick Shallow


Dr. Patrick Shallow

A former senior banker with wide experience, Patrick Shallow founded Credit Expo in 2001 having earlier founded the sister company, Finalysis, a Treasury Consultancy, in 1990. Prior to this, he was Managing Director of the Metropolitan Building Society and, earlier, Deputy MD of Chartered Trust, the Finance arm of Standard Chartered Bank. In South Africa, he was employed as economist with Standard Bank of South Africa, specializing in the analysis of Bank branch profitability and performance.Credit Expo was established to develop and promote the ECM Analytics retail credit risk management methodology and software for international lending.Patrick has presented regularly on Banking at University College, Dublin, also to the Irish Association of Corporate Treasurers. He is a contributor to Finance Magazine and to Business & Finance. Patrick holds a B.Comm (Law and Economics) degree from the University of the Witwatersrand, Johannesburg, a M.Sc. from Trinity College, Dublin and a PhD in credit risk measurement from the Smurfit Business School, University College Dublin. Patrick is also a Fellow of the Institute of Bankers.